Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.008570 0.009662 0.010858 0.012269 0.013892 0.015705 0.017889
2024-12-22 0.006564 0.007968 0.009643 0.011797 0.014515 0.017853 0.022299
2024-12-29 0.005614 0.007156 0.009097 0.011747 0.015309 0.019982 0.026670
2025-01-05 0.005171 0.006862 0.009094 0.012296 0.016838 0.023155 0.032786
2025-01-12 0.004513 0.006182 0.008466 0.011877 0.016932 0.024302 0.036142
2025-01-19 0.004017 0.005657 0.007976 0.011561 0.017089 0.025498 0.039673
2025-01-26 0.003692 0.005335 0.007729 0.011554 0.017676 0.027375 0.044501
2025-02-02 0.003550 0.005262 0.007831 0.012076 0.019129 0.030779 0.052357
2025-02-09 0.003294 0.004988 0.007596 0.012028 0.019634 0.032657 0.057812
2025-02-16 0.003108 0.004805 0.007482 0.012158 0.020438 0.035130 0.064716
2025-02-23 0.002885 0.004541 0.007209 0.011985 0.020683 0.036615 0.069932
2025-03-02 0.002741 0.004395 0.007116 0.012109 0.021468 0.039182 0.077709
2025-03-09 0.002566 0.004188 0.006918 0.012051 0.021954 0.041335 0.085221
2025-03-16 0.002336 0.003872 0.006506 0.011565 0.021576 0.041750 0.089091
2025-03-23 0.002198 0.003705 0.006339 0.011518 0.022050 0.043960 0.097435
2025-03-30 0.002157 0.003704 0.006471 0.012054 0.023769 0.049056 0.113659
2025-04-06 0.001990 0.003464 0.006141 0.011644 0.023454 0.049630 0.118762
2025-04-13 0.001853 0.003266 0.005874 0.011336 0.023319 0.050591 0.125064
2025-04-20 0.001764 0.003153 0.005760 0.011329 0.023847 0.053173 0.136269
2025-04-27 0.001741 0.003163 0.005886 0.011839 0.025611 0.059007 0.157934
2025-05-04 0.001658 0.003051 0.005759 0.011792 0.026067 0.061649 0.170886
2025-05-11 0.001600 0.002982 0.005714 0.011919 0.026953 0.065537 0.188594
2025-05-18 0.001516 0.002858 0.005546 0.011750 0.027090 0.067448 0.200451